Quarterback: 2021 Pre-Season Rookie Rankings
- Justin Fields — Bears
- Trevor Lawrence — Jaguars
- Trey Lance — 49ers
- Zach Wilson — Jets
- Mac Jones — Patriots
- Kellen Mond — Vikings
- Kyle Trask — Buccaneers
- Davis Mills — Texans
Honorable mentions:
9. Ian Book — Saints
10. Sam Ehlinger — Colts
11. Feleipe Franks — Falcons
12. Jamie Newman — I have no idea what went so wrong with him
*Note — The videos where I link an entire [Player] vs [Team] Youtube video should already lead you directly to the play I want you to see. There is no need to search the whole video or watch beyond just that single play (unless you want to) because the time at which the play I’m talking about takes place SHOULD already be pre-linked.
1. Justin Fields (Comps: Ben Roethlisberger, Steve Young)
Ohio State
Chicago Bears
Confidence Level: 80%
I’m going to get after the comps right away since they’ll probably be ridiculed:
When I watch Justin Fields I see Ben Roethlisberger’s pocket presence and ability to avoid getting taken down mixed with Steve Young’s escapability and propensity for running recklessly.
Fields has been a fascinating player to me for a long time. I didn’t like his tape at first and then he got drafted to the Bears and I changed my mind completely (I’m a Bears fan and that’s a joke). I initially saw slow footwork that frequently becomes almost statue-like, an inconsistent throwing motion with an awful release (timing/arm angle), flashes of terrible vision as a ball-carrier, injury risk from constant reckless running, inconsistent pocket awareness, failure to pick up the blitz too often, and the whole Ohio State QB stigma that was really dragging his stock down pre-draft. I don’t care about the Ohio State QB thing because you can say that about pretty much every school by the way.
You’re probably reading this and saying how can you see all those negative traits and still label him QB1? Well, shortcomings aside, his results were always immaculate. He was downright sloppy in parts of that Penn State game and still managed to go 28/34 passing with 314 yards passing and 4 TDs. Fields can turn nothing into something and the only area he’s limited is his limitations. In other words, he’s capable of doing anything that any other QB in NFL history has done.
Fields is a pure athlete; he’s got a railgun for an arm, and a superior drive to be great. I think Trevor Lawrence is the most sure-thing draft pick you can have at the quarterback position but the prospect of just how legendarily good Fields could be is a once in a lifetime proposition. Fields has shown a couple of times that he can outperform Trevor Lawrence dating all the way back to the Elite 11 competition that began their college football journeys to the 2020 CFB playoff blowout victory for Ohio State that ended it.
I may not be the biggest fan of Matt Nagy, but lately I feel like the #1 advocate for Nagy’s plan to give Fields the Mahomes treatment. However, the public outrage of Andy Dalton being QB1 has driven fans to the brink of insanity. I hate being pessimistic about my own team, but does anyone honestly think the Bears are a rookie Justin Fields away from the Super Bowl? The narrative somehow shifted over this off-season from Fields being drastically overlooked and falling in the draft to instantly becoming the greatest QB of all time prior to starting a game. I don’t know how it is possible to abate the problem of having millions of people in a young man’s ear telling him that he is better than the organization and he’s ready to play NOW. This feels like a rift between player and organization waiting to happen all because a bunch of loud know-it-all fans lack the patience to see how this plays out. However, Justin Fields is one of the smartest, most humble, and mature players I have ever witnessed to come out of the draft and that’s why he will avoid the “rat poison” as Jalen Hurts and Nick Saban would say. Overall, Fields NEEDS to sit and learn because-
“The Bears offensive line looks terrible”
“Fields needs to stop taking big hits”
“The Bears may have a wide receiver problem”
“Matt Nagy needs to figure out his play-calling”
are frequently said about the Bears in their current status. Do those really seem like the conditions you would like to slot the future of your franchise (who is just adjusting to the NFL level) into?
It should have been learned last year from watching how the media lambasted Tua Tagovailoa after he got benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick despite boasting a 7–3 W/L record to start his career. The Dolphins figured out early that he wasn’t ready yet and have since learned that once you put a QB in the damage has been done. This is not the MLB where you can send a player down to the minors and call them up with a renewed sense of hope, NFL fans are not so forgiving for benched QBs. Let’s also not downplay that Matt Nagy’s offense, in all likelihood, is much more complex than Chan Gailey’s. Casual fans don’t take the time to understand concepts like how the West Coast offense has so many intricacies with timing, placement, structure, and how it puts way more on a quarterback’s plate than other systems. Especially compared to college where Fields would look over at the sideline to see what play he was going to run. Now he’s expected to understand the other 10 players roles, communicate them to everyone else, read the defense pre and post snap then still be loose enough to play his game the same way he did in college…but better…versus a higher level of competition. Easy, right? (Idea partly sourced from Erik Lambert of Sports Mockery)
The way I see it, starting Fields right now is like eating a big bowl of cake mix. If you just wait until the cake gets made before you eat it then it’ll taste a whole lot better…and there won’t be any salmonella risk either (risk of injury goes down if he sits). We all know that Andy Dalton is Raisin Bread, but it’s either raisin bread today and cake tomorrow or cake mix today and possibly nothing tomorrow.
Overall, I think the pressure of being the coach of Chicago and being on the hot-seat will eventually derail Nagy’s plans but on paper they perfectly align with what I believe to be the perfect way to bring up a QB. With Andy Dalton and Nick Foles there to guide Fields as well as having a star receiver in Allen Robinson, he has been gifted far more than most quarterbacks drafted top 15 usually receive. I expect success right when he steps on the field no matter when it is, I just prefer it to be later rather than sooner.
**Shameless self-plug on my debut article about Justin Fields**
2. Trevor Lawrence (Comp: Peyton Manning)
Clemson
Jacksonville Jaguars
Confidence Level: 100%
Lawrence was practically a coin flip away from being my QB1. Lawrence stands at 6'5.5" 213lb and has a howitzer for an arm. His overall talent profile is up there with the likes of NFL greats like Peyton Manning, John Elway, and Andrew Luck adding him to a list of the most highly anticipated first round picks of all time. He compares best to Peyton Manning because of the height, arm talent, and even his play-style in a few aspects. It’s not one of my favorite comps ever because Manning had a much thicker built and wasn’t half as mobile as Lawrence is. It’s become somewhat of an accepted mainstream comparison. Truthfully, he may even compare better to Justin Herbert and will likely be his successor as rookie of the year.
Lawrence’s talent profile leads me to believe that he is part of that 1% of quarterbacks who can start from day 1, lead a successful career, and win a Super Bowl. It feels like we’ve seen his story before and it always ends well.
Tank for Trevor
-was the campaign the Jets embarked on from day 1 of the 2020 season…and eventually failed after the slightly-less pitiful Jaguars somehow managed to lose to them and hit the jackpot.
Watching Lawrence play feels truly special. I’m 22 years old and didn’t get to experience Peyton Manning’s journey through college but I imagine it felt a lot like this. I truly believe Lawrence to be a franchise-changing player and you will be hard-pressed to find many who disagree with that statement.
It is a popular sentiment that Lamar Jackson is the Giannis Antetokounmpo of the NFL. Everyone has him figured out, but no one can stop him. Well, Trevor Lawrence’s NBA counterpart is Zion Williamson. They were both under the media’s watchful eye since their early high school days and similar to how Zion was dubbed as the next LeBron James, Trevor Lawrence has been made out to become the next Peyton Manning (I swear it’s not just me saying that).
I know I’m really going overboard on this, but I can’t help but wonder what Peyton Manning would look like if he were brought up in this era of football and am kind of putting the onus on Lawrence to answer that question. A quick juxtaposition between Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes is where I would imagine most of the questions arise with Lawrence. If the Jaguars think Lawrence is Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers and will consistently make plays after the play completely breaks down then they’re going to be disappointed. I’m not saying that everything has to be perfect for Lawrence to succeed but his game is more about taking what he’s given and with his combo of size/athleticism he’s “given” a lot more than the average QB. He has poise, consistency with his throws to each part of the field, and his arm talent is unbelievable.
Lawrence is the definition of “sneaky-fast” and pairs that with great vision to find the open lanes when escaping the pocket vertically. He’s much more of a north and south runner (running past the line of scrimmage to gain yards on the ground) than a lateral one (running to the sidelines to extend plays through the air). Lawrence needs to stay in the pocket a tad longer at times while also toning down the amount of HUGE hits he takes to preserve his health. I think Lawrence could possibly struggle early because of his penchant to get over-reliant on his arm-strength leading to some lethargy in other areas. He could also use a little more touch and arc on his deep ball but that’s a nitpick, if his passes are getting completed consistently then it’s good enough.
I think his fit with the Jaguars offense is actually pretty great. Darrell Bevell doesn’t currently have the best reputation and Urban Meyer is doing some weird stuff (I’ll go more in depth on that later) but the roster is incredible and the college spread concepts that we all assume will be implemented are exciting. I mean, there’s a good chance that this is a slightly evolved version of the same offense that Dwayne Haskins threw 50 touchdowns in.
Travis Etienne being brought in to learn with Lawrence was a Godsend but his injury hurts bad. Luckily, he was there with Lawrence for the initial phases of his introduction into the offense but not having that familiar face in the actual games is such a huge tease. In any event, this offense still has all the weapons in the world at Lawrence’s disposal including the same type of players that Urban Meyer and Lawrence both coveted most in college.
I’ll admit that I don’t like the idea of a head coach learning how things work in the NFL at the same time as his quarterback but they have everything they need to learn together successfully. In college, Lawrence meshed perfectly with Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, a receiving corps that many QBs would dream to procure. Although, you have to hope for Trevor’s sake that the 2018–2019 versions of that duo is at least equal in skill to his current weapons, D.J. Chark and Marvin Jones Jr. Also, Urban Meyer has some weapons that fit what he liked to do in Laviska Shenault (who I think will become a VERY special player) and Travis Etienne when he returns from injury even if its not this season.
I hope for Lawrence’s sake that Urban Meyer doesn’t make him run an offense similar to Clemson’s 2020 offense. This is kind of a hot-take but the quick-passing, screen-based offense that Clemson employed in 2020 failed Lawrence and didn’t ask enough of him. When you have a supreme talent like Lawrence you should be slinging the ball downfield in a vertical passing offense like the one they had when they won the championship in 2018.
Another thing I really liked from Meyer was how he was working 1on1 with DJ Chark to help him unlock his potenti — aaaand he’s out for the entire pre-season with a finger injury that needed surgery. Lady luck hasn’t been kind to the Jaguars at all this pre-season. I mean, how many bad breaks can this team catch amidst the most pivotal part of their franchise QBs development? On top of all that, I have to admit that Urban Meyer‘s doing a really good job to make it appear from the outside looking in that he doesn’t know what he’s doing. If he knew Trevor Lawrence was going to get the starting job from the beginning (like everyone else did) then why would he stage that dumb, fake competition with Gardner Minshew and cut his first team reps in half?
If this evaluation goes wrong, I think it would be because of his lofty expectations and the pressure put onto him to succeed. There are a lot more people who believe he is as close to a sure-thing prospect as you will find at QB, than people who believe he isn’t. It also wouldn’t be a total shocker if the Jaguars or Urban Meyer messed him up, especially if you look back on the recent lack of success for college coaches turned NFL head coaches. The last possibility is that he just takes too many big hits and his body can’t handle it. Vertical running QBs tend to have an awful history of injuries. While having all the arm talent he has and still being able to escape the pocket for extra yardage at his size is a great asset, it can also potentially ruin his career. On top of that, the Jaguars O-line isn’t exactly rock-solid either.
3. Trey Lance (Comp: Jalen Hurts running ability/movement skills)
North Dakota State
San Francisco 49ers
Confidence Level: 75%
The 49ers veterans have completely bought into Trey Lance. I encourage you to do your own research and see just how many quotes you can compile of veteran 49ers plays proclaiming Trey Lance as the truth.
Lance has the ceiling of a hall of famer and the floor of the abyss. It’s funny how post-draft the widespread sentiment was that every QB except for Zach Wilson landed in the perfect spot for them to succeed. Since then, that narrative has flipped on the Jaguars, fallen off for the other teams, but rings especially true for Lance. Kyle Shanahan has been branded the label of ‘genius’ and his offensive system has taken football by storm in recent years. It is also widely believed that Shanahan’s losing record (29 wins, 35 losses) as 49ers head coach is largely attributed to adverse circumstances outside of his control such as constant injuries in important areas.
Jimmy Garoppolo starting should provide Lance with ample time to sit and learn. This was almost a consensus topic prior to the draft until the casual fans came back in the pre-season and started calling for him to start. Anyhow, I wouldn’t be opposed to the plan displayed in the 49ers final pre-season game by the 49ers where they used Jimmy Garoppolo and Lance kind of like Florida used Kyle Trask and Emory Jones or like the Saints used Drew Brees and Taysom Hill. Bringing in Lance every once in a while to get him some exposure to the offense while not directly throwing him into the fire could actually turn out to be a better strategy than sitting him all season. Especially for a QB who provides such incredible value with his legs and is on a Super Bowl contending team. The main issue with that strategy is that it’s not conventional and it’s not something we have much evidence of working (or not not working) in the past.
When watching Lance’s film I couldn’t help but think he needs to completely rework his deep ball. This concern seems unwarranted after seeing his pre-season play align more with his highly acclaimed pro-day than his actual game film for the first time in history.
On film you can see that he has a cannon arm and even puts great arc on the ball which is extremely rare for a young player to do. The problem is that there was no telling where the ball was actually going to land. He kind of just chucked the ball up as far as he could and sometimes the receiver will get under it like you’re told to do in high school. I think it’s also noteworthy to say that all of his film except 1 game (the only one he played in 2020) took place in 2019. Moral of the story — A lot can change in 2 years.
Lance’s claim to fame was that his first and only season starting he put up a stat-line of 28 Passing TDs, 14 Rushing TDs, 2786 Passing Yards, 1100 Rushing Yards, and ZERO interceptions while winning the FCS championship. It helped being in a dynasty and being the successor to Carson Wentz (and Eason Stick who also got drafted).
Lance is among the specific archetype of quarterback that puts the league on notice straight out of high school. Standing at 6'4" 224lb, he’s got an almost Josh Allen-like build but his game shares more similarities to Jalen Hurts. They both rely on using their legs and escaping the pocket vertically and are able to run past, as well as, bulldoze defenders. From what I’ve seen, their ability to run the football holds the same value. They’re about the same weight but Lance is a good 3 inches taller (better leverage and harder to take down) while Hurts is a former power-lifting champion which you would assume to be what makes up for the height disparity.
I get the Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson comps too. I don’t like them, but I understand them. There are some people occasions where there can be real concern with how a player’s athleticism translates from FCS to the NFL but Lance passes the eye test with flying colors. Nonetheless, it’s especially noteworthy considering how much of his game relies on running through and out-speeding defenders (That’s where people get the Lamar Jackson comp from if you were wondering). Also, regarding the ever-so-popular Cam Newton Comparisons-
Cam Newton haters when their team needs to draft a QB: “Wow, we should draft this QB; he looks just like Cam Newton!” (although, getting cut prior to the season certainly doesn’t help his case)
-The media speaks for itself on that front.
Lance can put some real zip on the ball to hit those long Out routes with ease. He could use work on his processor, pocket awareness, and pocket composure. He shows flashes of rolling through his progressions to find an open target as well as any other quarterback in the draft and has the makings of being able to navigate the pocket well; it’s just inconsistent right now.
It’s also worth monitoring what the 49ers do about his running habits. Lance runs completely different than Justin Fields. Fields runs under desperation and once he starts running he can’t control himself and gets reckless while running is ingrained in Lance’s game. If the 49ers tell him that he can’t run when he wants to then they will ruin him guaranteed. Lance isn’t quite as fast as Fields but he’s but he uses brute force to run through people at times and has a better grasp for not getting totally crushed (at least from what we’ve seen at the FCS level). He runs constantly, he avoids getting tackled altogether quite often, he has effective cuts/jukes. It even got to the point where Lance a little over-dependent on how dominant he was leaving the pocket which time and again has proved to be an issue when transitioning to the NFL. Bottom line is that Lance isn’t getting coached out of his running habits like Fields needs to be, they’re a different style of player despite being able to do similar things.
Lance was brought up in a bootleg-heavy offense where he got to take snaps from under center and looks poised to fit right in with Kyle Shanahan who employs those same philosophies. Lance is also set up with an offense that has a cornucopia of weapons at his disposal including George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Kyle Shanahan’s run game that could churn out superstar statistics from just about any half decent RB. Not to discount Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon who bring two different elements to the 49ers run game.
Something that I never would have factored into this evaluation prior to the pre-season is that it looks like Kyle Shanahan’s master plan is that he wants to combine the two most potent run-game schemes we’ve seen in the last couple decades. I’m not sure if anyone else would be as capable as Kyle Shanahan to fuse his own incredible run-scheme with the Greg Roman system that helped jump-start the careers of Colin Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson. The short pass game is also perfect for Lance because of his deep ball issues and a minor concern with ball placement. I didn’t see Lance throw many screens in college but that only makes his stats even more impressive. Lance’s issues with accuracy have been prevalent during the pre-season and that gives me more confidence to trust what I saw there. However, I’m not really worried about it because of his chance to sit and learn, his excellent offensive-minded head coach, his great supporting cast (offense and defense), and his extraordinary talent. Lance is by no means a sure-thing as a prospect, but he has everything he needs to potentially turn out the best QB in this draft.
4. Zach Wilson (Comps: Patrick Mahomes & Johnny Manziel)
BYU
New York Jets
Confidence Level: 100%
There are so many legitimate arguments against putting Zach Wilson here. He certainly doesn’t deserve to be anyone’s QB4 but neither do any of the guys I ranked ahead of him. The arm angles, the highlight reel passes, the pinpoint accuracy, the velocity on his throws. Watching Wilson’s tape might have been the most fun I had all draft cycle. He is expected to be involved in an offensive structure that has succeeded almost invariably these last couple seasons and is on an ascending roster, especially on offense. However, every positive case you make for Wilson’s situation comes with a negative such as; how that offensive system is yet to be seen and their “ascending roster” is built around almost as many rookie starters as veterans.
Wilson is 6'2" 214lb and has the same ability to extend plays that made Johnny Manziel, Johnny football. He also has a rocket arm and the ability to throw off-platform like Patrick Mahomes.
Kind of like how I said watching Trevor Lawrence is like being able to view the rise of a similar talent to Peyton Manning in today’s game, watching Zach Wilson is like seeing if Mahomes could have succeeded without having Andy Reid there to guide him. Of course if Wilson fails you can’t say, “SEE? I told you Mahomes wouldn’t be crap without Andy Reid,” but it’s just a fun scenario to picture and keep in mind for future scouting situations. Furthermore, Wilson also happens to be like a new version of Johnny Manziel sent to revive that entire archetype of quarterback that seemed to die out along with Manziel’s career (For the record, Ian Book fits this archetype as well).
If I miss on Zach Wilson I’ll feel so stupid for galaxy braining the heck out of this. He’s a highlight machine and compiled a ton of positive plays using his legs. He doesn’t seem to have the same issue as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields where they can’t mitigate getting hit-sticked to Japan. Conversely, Wilson’s slender frame isn’t ideal for taking big hits.
I really like how he’s constantly spinning away from pressure. Basically all of the best QBs in the league, except Brady, have a QB pocket spin move to escape and Wilson uses it to perfection. You’ll see it from Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen and NOT Jimmy Garoppolo.
Fair warning — If no one informs me that there’s a simpler name for this move than “QB spin outside of the pocket move” then I’m naming it myself because special QBs are using it far too often for it to not get discussed as a positive scouting trait despite its simplicity.
Wilson was a 3-year starter and started 27 games at BYU. This is something to keep in the back of your mind because one of the biggest talking points in scouting quarterbacks is their experience and how many games they started:
Justin Fields: 21 starts — Junior — Started games in 2 seasons
Trevor Lawrence: 36 starts — Junior — Started games in 3 seasons
Trey Lance: 17 starts — Junior — Started games in 2019 only + 1 game (2020)
Mac Jones: 16 starts — Junior — Started games in 2 seasons
Zach Wilson: 27 starts — Junior — Started games in 3 seasons
Kellen Mond: 44 starts — Senior — Started games in 4 seasons
Kyle Trask: 22 starts — Junior — Started games in 2 seasons
BYU surprisingly had a solid offense with a slew of good players. However, they ran a gimmicky offense with a lot of trickery and odd concepts that the NFL doesn’t generally use. The difference in transition between BYU and what we expect the Jets offense to look like might be overstated. I question if it is really as difficult a transition as Justin Fields has to make switching over to Matt Nagy’s offense. You could argue that Ohio State’s offense is maybe closer to Nagy’s (in terms of ‘Xs and Os’) than BYU’s offense will be to LaFleur’s, but I digress.
Wilson’s New York experience didn’t start off well when the Jets allowed contract negotiations with Wilson to allow him to miss the first day of training camp. They also failed to surround him with even one quarterback who threw a single pass in the NFL until day 6 of camp when they finally added experienced journeyman, Josh Johnson. I don’t mean to play a game of “my dad can beat up your dad” but I would prefer Andy Dalton & Nick Foles > Josh Johnson in the mentor role unquestionably (He was cut prior to the season anyway). I also acknowledge that these aren’t major factors that predict will Wilson to be a bust or anything, I’m more-so providing small-scale evidence of omens the Jets organization have already begun to lay out for us.
Overall, the Jets are fresh off one of the most embarrassing seasons in NFL history where they spent the entire season trying to tank for Trevor Lawrence and even managed to screw that up. Despite the top-down reconstruction in the Jets front office, it is still hard to have faith in them. The sort of stigma the old regime left behind always tends to carry through to the next one.
The main issue is that Zach Wilson is getting thrown into the fire. The Jets have no shot at winning the division (@OldTakesExposed) and lack a suitable number of proven commodities to surround him with including their inexperienced coaching staff. You just have to hope that the media won’t crucify him for the team’s lack of success, especially since being a rookie isn’t enough of an excuse anymore. Look at Tua (winning record) and Jalen Hurts (played 4 games) who were lambasted all off-season and regularly found themselves in trade rumors.
My whole shtick is to be critical but remain fair and if Zach Wilson can get through this season unscathed he’ll have a treasure trove of resources waiting for him the following year. I can often catch myself being overly optimistic in assuming that players will improve season to season but you’d have to hope that Wilson, Carter, Moore, Becton, and AVT will become building blocks for at least one of their two 2022 first round picks to slot in next to.
You could go on forever just tallying all the things that the top 4 QBs have surrounding him that Wilson doesn’t:
- Fields has Matt Nagy who helped developed Mahomes, DeFilipo who was Nick Foles QB coach when they won the SB, and Andy Dalton & Nick Foles to help him out as peers
- Trevor Lawrence is such a freak he has no choice NOT to succeed and has a lot of well-established weapons on his offense
- Trey Lance has Kyle Shanahan who has been coined an offensive genius along with a solid veteran and former NFC Champion QB in Jimmy Garoppolo to help bring him along
- Mac Jones is in the offense that birthed Tom Brady, is being coached by Bill Belichick, and has a sturdy offensive line to keep him centered
I know I’ve picked on all the things that Wilson doesn’t have throughout this write-up but he’s insanely talented to the point where his floor (barring injury) is an average QB who flashes great things. He’s not Sam Darnold who had a major turnover problem in college and he’s not Mark Sanchez who was…well, Mark Sanchez. Wilson has the talent but lacks the ideal landing spot at a crucial point in his development. The big question with him is, will his talent prevail?
5. Mac Jones (Comp: Phillip Rivers)
Alabama
New England Patriots
Confidence Level: 50%
Mac Jones wasn’t just doubted in 2020, he was written off. People had freshman Bryce Young painted as the next big thing and were not-so-patiently waiting on Jones to fail. One championship later and this is a bit of history that has since been swept under the rug. However, I can’t help but feel like it will live with Jones forever in the form of a chip on his shoulder. Fast-forward to 2021 and people laughed at the prospect of Jones being a first round pick, they questioned his talent, they questioned his upside. In the span of just 1 year Mac Jones has gone from a virtual nobody who was compared to Alabama’s previous low-end QBs Greg McElroy and A.J. McCarron to beating out Cam Newton for the New England Patriots starting job before week 1 of his rookie year.
Cam Newton getting cut before the season dumbfounded me. I believed Newton to be an experienced bridge QB with maybe a 5% chance of making the Patriots a contender in 2021 that could show Jones the ropes as he got to sit, learn, and soak up the ever-so-valuable tutelage of Bill Belichick (and Josh McDaniels). Now I’m not so sure the Patriots have a semblance of a chance to contend. If this had not happened I don’t know if I would have delved so deeply into questioning what Jones has that Zach Wilson doesn’t. It might be kind of rash but I moved Michael McCorkle Jones (yes, that’s his real middle name) to QB5 practically overnight. I respect the greatest coach of all time and everything he’s done up to this point in his career but I can’t help but feel like he’s making decisions that are going to start snowballing downhill quickly. I’m neck deep in the philosophy that a QBs situation is the most important factor in their success and when you carefully examine Jones’ situation you’ll notice it kind of sucks.
I took issue with Zach Wilson not having another QB to guide him and then the Patriots one upped that by not even having another active QB on the roster until just before opening day (Jarrett Stidham is on the PUP list so he doesn’t count). I didn’t like how Zach Wilson was thrown into the fire and asked to make it work with a unit full of young guys meanwhile the Patriots have an entire team built with new faces:
Key players the Patriots have in 2021 that they didn’t in 2020:
Offense-
Mac Jones (duh)
Rhamondre Stevenson
Nelson Agholor
Kendrick Bourne
Jonnu Smith
Hunter Henry
Trent Brown (He was on the Patriots in 2018) (Their whole O-line has shifted around as a result of this signing)
Defense-
Christian Barmore
Davon Godchaux
Henry Anderson
Matt Judon
Ronnie Perkins
Dont’a Hightower (Opted out)
Kyle Van Noy (He was on the Patriots in 2019)
Jalen Mills
Shaun Wade (This one might be a stretch but I’m not sure since Gilmore is on the PUP list and will miss the first 5 weeks)
This isn’t just a re-haul, this is an extreme makeover from 2020. I can’t help but wonder how a team with this much turnover is going to mesh right away and be ready for a rookie QB to take the reins.
Also, whoever was feeding into this narrative that Mac Jones is sneaky mobile is on crack. I can promise you that Mac Jones 40 time (4.79) being faster than Patrick Mahomes’ (4.80) means absolutely nothing because he’s not going to be doing Mahomes-like things. That is not to say that he’s stiff as a board and can’t run to save his life but he’s not going to rise above the “game manager” mold of player which gets a much worse wrap than it really is. About 80% of a QBs job is to manage the game.
It is well documented that Jones isn’t as physically talented as any of the guys ahead of him in this list but he has a great arm, he’s possibly the most gifted rookie at being able to see the field we’ve ever come across, and he’s got a great feel for what he is/isn’t including figuring out the limits of his arm strength which is something rookies usually take about 2 years to figure out. Matter of fact, we’re all hoping Jameis Winston has finally figured that out and he’s been in the league for 6 years now.
There is also a legitimate chance that Jones was propped up by an amazing surrounding offense that included Najee Harris, a borderline NFL level offensive line, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, John Metchie, and Steve Sarkisian running an incredibly efficient scheme.
These are DeVonta Smith’s offensive stats by game. Let’s not discount the fact that he probably spent just about every one of these games sitting in the second half including the Mississippi State and Ohio State games where he dropped 200+ yards in the first half. There’s a reason why he won the Heisman over Jones.
Saban to Belichick, championship experience, a chip on his shoulder, always says the perfect thing to the media, incredibly gifted in the mental aspects of football. Jones has a bunch of favorable traits that would intrigue anyone. Right from his first start at Alabama after Tua Tagovailoa went down with an injury, Jones went right to work posting a stat-line of 10/12 completions for 275 yards and 3 TDs over Western Carolina in a win that garnered comments such as “The Crimson Tide offense essentially looked the same with Jones taking the snaps.” It’s pretty crazy to think about how arguably the best QB in CFB at the time was replaced and the offense didn’t miss a beat with a back-up starting his first game. You can discount it for being versus Western Carolina if you want, but I won’t. However, there is reason for concern about how similar Jones is to Tua. It’s concerning because you probably don’t want a copy and paste QB in a league where supreme talent reigns supreme and it’s also concerning because right now Tua is more doubted than lauded. Tua lacks the physical tools to have the high ceiling that the top QBs in today’s game have like Justin Herbert, who according to the eye test, blows Tua out of the water even if their W/L records don’t agree. I believe Jones has a slightly better arm and has a better grasp on reading the field but it’s just not enough of a difference for me to say he’s without a doubt the better prospect.
Let’s get really crazy here:
I’m wondering if Tua being just 6 months older than Mac is an advantage in itself (September birthdays set you back a year with school, I would know). They’re in the same division and Tua already has a year in the NFL. They fit into the same QB archetype with similar talent levels on teams that have similar coaches (Flores is probably everyone’s favorite Belichick disciple ever by now). This is a classic case of the “big brother” has a chance to pound on little bro to take him down a peg.
Better yet, Tua has the chance to use his one-year head start right from week 1 to ruin Mac’s debut and possibly end his season in week 18. The Dolphins (assuming the Patriots and Jets aren’t trash this year) are just the right amount of ‘good but not good enough’ to make the final week of the season an important game where the starters will play. For the record, I know this line of thinking is beyond unorthodox and maybe even hits Colin Cowherd levels of crazy, but it’s pretty dang interesting, isn’t it?
It’s probably bad politics that the tone starts out so bleak and dreary for every prospect I’m writing about but I actually really like Mac Jones. Everything doesn’t have to be all hunky-dory for me to like a player’s game and QB5 in this QB class could be QB1 in some other years. I’m still probably higher on him than most people.
Jones > Joe Burrow — Jones has a better arm, better coach, better O-line
Jones>Kirk Cousins — Cousins isn’t clutch. No one will ever win with him
Jones > Derek Carr — Missed the playoffs far too many years for me to believe
Jones > Matt Ryan — Ryan Fell off a cliff last year, Super Bowl window closed
This is probably going to come back to bite me somehow.
When I started watching his tape I noticed right away that he’s fearless when unleashing the deep ball and it’s incredibly accurate to boot. He might even throw his passes with a little too much arc at times but he can drop it right in the bucket consistently even at 60+ air yards. Jones can really seed some passes right through different coverages and has a great understanding of how to throw his receivers open and throw with anticipation. You can tell that Jones grew up watching that 2004 QB class because he reminds me of Phillip Rivers with his play-style and quick release that can sometimes look reminiscent of Rivers’ throwing motion while also having the most consistently used pump fake that I’ve seen other than Ben Roethlisberger. Mac is so detailed that he even leads his receivers on screen passes and always puts the easy throws into the perfect spots. Be that as it may, screen passes are also the most obvious passes where you can see the gap between Jones and Trevor Lawrence’s arm strength. Jones has really good pocket movement and has what I’d call an innate ability to navigate the pocket which has been a much more sought-after trait in the league since Daniel Jones complete and utter failure to circumvent that issue. In the same vein, Jones holds the ball too long and that became extremely apparent in his third and final pre-season game for the Patriots. Jones has a notably wide base (that basically means he keeps his legs far apart from each other for extra balance) but his feet often get all crossed up at times thus compromising his base and making his footwork a minor work-in-progress. The only thing that Jones does that I think is Brady-like (for all you Patriots fans waiting to hear something like that) is how he doesn’t get deterred by defenders bearing down on him and can throw the ball with a lineman right in his face. He’s 6'2.5" 217lb which is just about the requisite NFL QB height but he could afford to add a lot more muscle…
I feel like the 2019 offense was a less refined version of the 2020 offense but he was able to pull out a win with help from Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, and DeVonta Smith. There might be a little getting used to not taking every snap out of the shotgun anymore in the NFL like he did at Alabama. Jones isn’t going to a hero-ball guy but there may be some rookie adjusting to do where he’ll throw some passes he’ll regret. Either he sold play action passed really well or teams were terrified of Najee Harris (probably both). He’s always ready to throw quickly off the PA and it was an effective weapon for Alabama’s offense. He might have the most consistent deep ball in the entire draft class accuracy wise but those numbers are kind of skewed by how often he saw his receivers get wide open deep. It can’t hurt that Jones almost never missed the lay-ups. I’m not a fan of his ability to throw on the run although when he runs towards the LOS and keeps his eyes downfield he can uncork an accurate ball. My absolute favorite thing he does is when he slides away from pressure to buy himself another second or two to get the pass off. This is a skill that more than half of the NFL’s starting QBs can’t do consistently. Jones really just lacks the fear that comes with being hit in the pocket but not in an oblivious Daniel Jones type of way. I also like how he can layer the ball over a defender and displays great touch in the end-zone. He has extensive experience running the QB sneak which will come in handy for how often the Patriots utilize it.
I don’t even think I should have to explain what Jones can’t do. He’s never going to make ridiculous highlight plays like Mahomes, he doesn’t have the height of a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, his arm talent isn’t so great that it jumps off the tape even though it’s still impressive but he makes his money by not trying to do too much and playing within himself. It’s kind of understated how often he threw to his hot read and didn’t have to go through his progressions but I think that’s a point of over-analysis that tape study guys examine way too intently. Also, in an effort to dig myself out of that hole I made earlier heavily comparing him to Tua but basically saying he’s better, I have to say that Tua’s special ability to hit his receivers on slants and other crossing routes in stride so consistently is a step above Mac’s. Also, for a guy with such a high release, it doesn’t keep his passes from getting batted down. I wouldn’t say it happened often, but it happened a little too often. It’s was also frustrating to see him sometimes make what appeared to be the correct decision at times and still get punished because of his physical limitations. However, he’s not crippled by those limitations by any means. I respect that Mac tries thing; he throws balls that are not easily completed and trusts his receivers to make great plays. There’s a really fine line you have to walk for that to be a positive trait and thus far he has tight-roped it successfully. He can throw accurate passes at every level, consistently puts the right touch on it, and always puts it on the correct shoulder.
6. Kellen Mond (Comp: Ryan Fitzpatrick)
Texas A&M
Minnesota Vikings
Confidence Level: 90%
No matter what ends up happening in Mond’s career he’s always going to be closely tied to the infamous Chris Simms rankings that had him as QB4 over Justin Fields and Trey Lance. Chris Simms somehow became a QB guru overnight who had “successfully” predicted the last 3 classes and that led people to question everything they knew about this class of QBs.
Mond has a solid build at 6'2.5" 211lb, that’s a little light for a guy who you’d like to see get gaining some yards on the ground but he tends to be a more hesitant runner who needs QB draws and read-option plays to really start piling together some rushing yards. That aspect of his game mixed with his athleticism is what I would imagine everyone compares him to Dak Prescott for. I think going to middle-tier SEC schools with similar color schemes, being a similar height, going to college for 4 years, putting up similar production (Dak’s was much better), and finishing their careers with blowout bowl game victories are all negligible parallels that drive people to think they’re more similar than they really are.
Overall, Mond’s stats were pretty solid. College QB stats tend to be pretty useless but they can help provide a push in the right direction for a prospect with as many questions as him. His completion percentage raised every year, his last year yielded his best TD/INT ratio of 19/3 (and 4 rushing TDs) in 10 games which is pretty impressive seeing as he faced an SEC gauntlet of a schedule due to COVID changing the structure of the college schedule.
I would like to know why the whole Ohio State thing was such a problem for Justin Fields but Jimbo Fisher’s terrible track record of developing QBs is a non-story? I’d say this one holds a lot more merit because it’s not just a silly little school curse, it’s a coach who consistently fails to prepare his QBs for the NFL.
Mond was also about as unlucky as can be at Texas A&M because he never had the benefit of throwing to a true NFL receiver aside from 7 games with Christian Kirk all the way back in 2017 and Ainias Smith who will likely be a highly touted receiver after this season but was merely a sophomore gadget player last year when Mond got to play with him. All in all, Mond’s top weapons in college were a bunch of people you’ve likely never heard of yet he was expected to ball out versus SEC teams with that supporting cast (and did because he went 9–1 only losing to Alabama and just missing the playoffs as the 5th seed). Furthermore, Jalen Wydermyer, Quartney Davis, and Kendrick Rogers were all drop machines. 2019 Clemson is a funny game because he looked pretty good but there were so many drops that his stats look like he had the worst game ever.
Despite how this article began, Mond’s faults aren’t all the fault of his supporting cast. He has issues with consistency when it comes to ball placement and even though he tested out very well athletically, he rarely uses it to his advantage. He also falls over without even being touched like he’s Tom Brady at times and it’s kind of frustrating when there’s clearly a hole he can escape from. His accuracy is what drops him so low on everybody’s rankings and is what keeps him from being at the same level as QBs 1–5. It’s pretty intriguing how Mond and Trask have polar opposite reasons for not being ranked higher and also have the quality that the other one lacks. While Trask’s throws flutter in the air like sad ducks, Mond’s throw velocity is ridiculous. He throws absolute laser beams that practically teleport from point A to point B. However, he lacks the same level of understanding that Trask has for the passing game in a variety of areas which may be more suitable to go over in Trask’s evaluation.
Mond’s landing spot with the Vikings isn’t terrible but it’s not great either. He actually compares pretty well to Jordan Love from a standpoint of accuracy issues, arguably 1st round talents who are extremely raw, NFC North backup QBs who are likely to spend a long time on the bench, and they both have very enticing arm talent. However, I think Jordan Love is the better prospect in the better situation. I’m using Jordan Love as kind of a measuring stick for Mond because sometimes you have to take a step back and examine everything else besides the prospect to see where they really stand kind of like how you can only truly appreciate how fast a player is by watching how slow the other players around him look. The fact of the matter is that watching too much tape on a single player can get you a little overexcited at times and so the more you see, the less you know.
A major problem I see with him is that he looks stiff as a board in the pocket. He’s almost hunched over and playing the game like he’s thinking about it too hard. He shows examples of being able to go through his progressions and always seems to know where his hot receiver is which is very intelligent. Sometimes it will look like his eyes are down and he’s about to run the ball or panic before he looks downfield and finds his target in an instant.
He didn’t really throw a whole lot of jump balls or passes that were layered over linebackers and in front of safeties. His throwing motion can be really weird at times too and when he tries to do Russell Wilson-type things you’re only reminded of how darn special Russell Wilson is. He’s antsy in the pocket, often seems scared to climb the pocket, and is prone to some real “what the heck are you doing?” moments. These include backing up 20 yards before throwing the ball or throwing the ball to the middle of nowhere. The issue with backing up too much is becoming a common issue among young QBs recently and I believe it has something to do with how it’s Patrick Mahomes biggest weakness yet he’s been able to turn it into a positive on a weekly basis. Lastly, I don’t like that Mond has no clue how to slide.
In conclusion, while I think Mond’s throwing velocity is special and I like how he’s going to sit behind Kirk Cousins and possibly get a chance to throw to Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, possibly a well-developed Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and Irv Smith Jr; I just can’t say that I think he’s going to be a starter in the NFL for a long time. I think Mond might even be more physically talented than Mac Jones, but he just doesn’t make throws at every level as a starting-caliber NFL QB should. Mond may be able to come in off the bench and just seed the ball in there and feign the appearance of a very good QB a few times in his career thanks to his strong arm and capable vision until teams really start to game-plan against him thus making him more like Ryan Fitzpatrick than Dak Prescott.
7. Kyle Trask
Florida
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Confidence Level: 90%
Don’t tell the film community this, but I actually liked Kyle Trask’s tape. I see promise in him despite hearing from so many trustworthy sources that he just isn’t that dude. However, he’s 7th on this list because his throws lack the necessary juice of an NFL starting QB.
Trask’s ball takes SOOOOOOOOOO long to get from point A to point B that it considerably limits the throws he’s capable of making. NFL throwing windows are nothing like college and every year there are rookies who find out the hard way that the players on defense are faster than the ball at the next level. Moreover, QBs with better velocity on their throws have more room for error and fewer times they will see a WR and say, “he’s open, but by the time I throw the ball he won’t be.” If you watch these two plays you’ll instantly realize the substantial difference between the arm talent of Trask and Trevor Lawrence. Even supposing the distances of these throws aren’t as far apart as they appear, Lawrence’s ball looks like it is traveling at light-speed compared to Trask’s. I try not to look at throwing velocity like it’s the end-all-be-all for QBs like everyone else does but this is an integral part of his game. His saving grace is that he lives up to the maxim, “know thyself.” Whereas most QBs who try writing checks they can’t cash by attempting throws they’re not physically capable of, Trask has a great understanding of his limits. If he finds success then that will assuredly be the reason why.
I actually don’t think Bruce Arians was lying or exaggerating here. Obviously, QB7 Kyle Trask isn’t Andrew Luck but the reason he’s not Andrew Luck has nothing to do with his brain. The super high ceiling isn’t there for Trask, but he’s a game-managing QB who can certainly come into games and win at the next level. It also helps him so much more that he’s going to sit behind Tom Brady. Kyle Trask is a 6'5" 236lb ‘unathletic’ pocket QB with huge 10" hands that will manage games and keep his turnovers at a minimum. You may notice that doesn’t sound too far off from describing Tom Brady even though it’s a cherry-picked collection of similar/positive traits. Needless to say, and I don’t know how anyone could possibly misconstrue these words to think I meant this, Kyle Trask is NOT Tom Brady.
He’s better (Just kidding)
Trask can throw the ball to any area of the field because he possesses a lot of the same traits as Mac Jones from a mental standpoint. He can throw passes to every level of the field but his throw to the wheel route is almost always perfect and I’m not even exaggerating. Every time I saw him throw the wheel route it was a thing of beauty.
In high school, Trask was the backup to current Miami QB D’Eriq King and did not play a single game after his freshman year. It was a miracle that he was ever even discovered because week-3 versus Kentucky in 2019 Feleipe Franks dislocated his ankle thus allowing Trask to come in and lead a comeback down 10–21 (finishing 29–21). If he ever ends up starting a game (I’m pretty sure he will) then this story is going to be everywhere. He was also at Florida for two seasons before he finally got a real chance to start and unbeknownst to a lot of people finished his career as a Redshirt Senior at the Heisman award ceremony finishing 4th (should have been 2nd in my opinion). Considering the fact that he is a RS-SR, he isn’t much older than the other QBs as he won’t turn 24 until next off-season.
As you’d expect from a Heisman contender, his production was amazing. He was often compared to Joe Burrow because of their similar career arcs where in 3 years they both went from ‘just a guy’ to ‘average college starter’ to Heisman contender at the end of their RS-SR seasons. Also, if you give Trask 3 more games like Burrow had (he played 15, Trask played 12) then he may have even exceeded Burrow’s potential GOAT production. Trask’s ball placement can be suspect at times but that narrative is completely overblown in my eyes. You could clip plays that oppose the other persons narrative on this topic all day like a game of ‘she loves me, she loves me not’. From what I saw, it’s neither great nor terrible.
All-in-all, you really have to take off the rose colored glasses with Trask because if you get caught up in his story, stats, and positive traits you’re just going to blind you from just how terrible the bad stuff is. He’s slow as dirt and has no mobility whatsoever. There are times that he barely looks like he’s covering any ground while shuffling, sliding and hitching forwards in the pocket because of his heavy feet. He is even a clear step down from Mac Jones who I slapped the immobile label onto. He’s such a lost cause when the pocket collapses that you’d like to see him just admit defeat like Brady does (Precisely what I said Kellen Mond should never do). There are countless times on tape where he tries to escape the pocket and will make hilariously bad plays doing so.
Like these:
Trask had the benefit of some preposterously good weapons in Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney. I believe that we may even find out soon that he had a better corps of receivers than we could have ever imagined:
Jacob Copeland
Justin Shorter
Trent Whittemore
Trevon Grimes
Van Jefferson
Tyrie Cleveland
Freddie Swain
Additionally, Dan Mullen is a genius. I was watching game after game of that Florida offense and I still can’t pinpoint a game where Dan Mullen was bad. Heck, I can’t even find a game where Mullen wasn’t awesome. He is unpredictable, he’s willing to keep going back to plays that work (up to 10 times in one game in one instance), and you have to be a real magician to have me sit there and watch a LOSS and still say, “holy cow, he called a great game!” Mullen may not be the best coach in college football because of recruiting but in terms of development, play-calling, and in-game situations I believe he’s the best coach in college football right now (except Nick Saban obviously). With that being said, I still can’t be totally sure how that affects Trask yet because while I’m already settled on the fact that Mullen is great, I’m still stuck between two different narratives:
- Dan Mullen was so good that he made an average QB (Trask) look good
- Dan Mullen was so good that he prepared Trask for the league and molded him into an NFL QB
I’m sure Dak Prescott, Tim Tebow, and Alex Smith would all go with #2 but I truthfully have no idea. Maybe he was even the true mastermind behind Alex Smith and Tim Tebow’s success instead of Urban Meyer who gets all the credit.
Or not, I’m just being scandalous…unless?
8. Davis Mills (Comp: Jarrett Stidham)
Stanford
Houston Texans
Confidence Level: 100%
I’m going to keep Davis Mills evaluation shorter than the others because I don’t believe he’s all that special despite the hype he received pre-draft. His career is definitely worth monitoring but I just can’t find myself buying the hype.
Mills is 6'4" 217lb and played in only 13 college games (11 starts). His improvement from 2019 to 2020 on tape was pretty impressive as even his throwing velocity got noticeably stronger. 3–6 (4–8 team record) and 4–1 (4–2 team record) were the records his team recorded with him at QB even though the 3–6 is kind of skewed thanks to the indecision of whether to play Mills or KJ Costello (Not a good sign because Costello isn’t good) as well as an injury that kept him out for 3 weeks. Due to Mills only really having around 8 full games as a starter, it’s hard to judge whether his stats are good or bad.
The one thing I thought stood out about Mills was that he was extremely willing to continuously test corners 1on1 in 5–10 yard routes. This probably sounds so ordinary, but when I was watching his tape I couldn’t help but notice that he was testing these short 1on1s almost every other play with consistent success. Usually a QB will move on if he sees a corner draped all over his receiver, but Mills has a penchant for seeding the ball into the perfect spot for the receiver to make the grab. Of course this strategy relies on having receivers who are great at catching, relies on throwing the ball over the middle of the field where it can be tipped up, and also relies on Mills to make the perfect throw time and again. But he does, consistently.
Mills is too inexperienced for me to go out on a limb and say he’s any kind of special player. He’s the same age as most of these other draft-able QBs, he regularly doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket, his overall accuracy is pretty hit-or-miss, his testing metrics say he’s not any more athletic than Mac Jones (I question the legitimacy of that), and he just might think he shares some kind of a telepathic connection with his receivers based on how crazy some of his pass-leads are. This is more speculation than anything, but I suspect that a lot of his odd throwaways (sometimes up to 8 yards away from the targeted receiver) are because he expects his receivers to break off their routes and go to an open spot on the field. The problem is that the receivers can’t possibly know the spot where Mills wants them to go unless they’re reading his mind.
Between the constant miscommunications between him and his receivers, his inability to throw on the run, and not being able to slide (he takes big hits as a result of that); I just don’t feel inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for the unfortunate things around him such as the insane amount of drops from his receivers along with the miscommunications on the receivers part.
Taking everything into account, this write-up is a lot more negative than it should be. Mills shows flashes of pocket escapability, layering the ball over defenders, and poise in the pocket capped off with an NFL arm. However, you will rarely see him put all those traits together at the same time. I see Mills panning out as a solid backup like Trevor Siemian or Jarrett Stidham, who is a great comp that I stole from NFL Network Analyst Lance Zierlein. The way I view Mills is the equivalent of a basketball player who has mastered the alley-oop pass but is only a 20% shooter. How Mills has such precision within 5–10 yards but has so much trouble beyond that is something that I believe will ultimately keep him from being an NFL starter.
